As longtime readers would know, BullMarkets.co used to be BearMarket.net. I disappeared mysteriously at the end of July 2017. Here’s what happened.
What happened to me & BearMarket.net
I had a really bad sports injury in early May 2017 (and no, it wasn’t from surfing 😛 ). Long story short, the injury got progressively worse from May to July. Between travelling, running a hedge fund, and running BearMarket.net, I just could not take it anymore.
I flew back home for medical treatment, and it’s been a painfully slow recovery since then. I am now 95% fully recovered.
Due to my life-threatening injury (I could have ended up in a wheelchair), I closed the hedge fund and closed BearMarket.net.
But now that I’m almost fully recovered, I re-examined my life and made some big changes.
- I will no longer run a hedge fund or take anyone else’s money, even if it’s family/friends. I am now just a private investor/trader.
- I have decided to re-open BearMarket.net. Writing it was fun, and I got to know a lot of interesting investors/traders. But since the domain BearMarket.net expired, I have changed the website to BullMarkets.co
How my investing/trading career has changed
My hedge fund used to trade UPRO (3x ETF for the S&P 500) via 2 layers of models.
- The top layer: this accurately predicted bull markets, bear markets, and significant corrections (e.g. 13% corrections).
- The bottom layer: this model traded the smaller corrections and smaller rally waves. In essence, this was a more short term model.
Now that I’m in semi-retirement mode, I am only using the top layer model. I buy and hold when it’s a “big rally” within a bull market (i.e. when the model does not predict a significant correction), and I hold cash when the model predicts a significant correction or bear market. This means that I am often fully invested in UPRO from anywhere between 6 months to 4 years.
The top layer model uses:
- Economic Data
- Long term technical analysis (patterns, algorithms, etc)
The bottom layer model uses shorter term technical analysis. As time goes on, shorter term technical analysis is becoming more and more useless:
- 2017 proved that a lot of small technical analysis for the S&P 500 are useless. So many historical studies have failed in 2017.
- We live in a world with too much capital (thanks to QE, Chinese money floating around the world, etc). That is why you see insane bubbles like Bitcoin, which prove all previous short term technical analysis wrong. (Bitcoin is the fastest bubble in history, and the most extreme).
I will have a lot of upcoming posts today and this weekend. Stay tuned!
*I’m almost done setting up the website.
My portfolio right now
After I closed the hedge fund, I went 100% long UPRO on September 7 when the S&P was at 2465 and UPRO was at $109.3
Prior to my injury, I was 100% cash because I predicted a small 6% correction. But my injury forced me to ignore the small corrections/rallies and focus on significant corrections.
2018 will be a very different year than 2017. The S&P will be much choppier, with multiple small 6%+ corrections in between. But as long as my model does not foresee a significant correction (which it doesn’t right now), I will remain 100% long UPRO and ride out the small corrections.
I will publish a lot of posts this weekend explaining my thoughts for 2018.