Notice how silver’s forward returns are mostly random (close to a 50-50 chance of going up vs down). But here’s the more important point: these sort of 1 day crashes don’t happen when silver is in a bull market.
When silver crashes the way it did today while it’s in a downtrend (i.e. is below its 200 daily moving average), it’s a sign that silver is still in a bear market. This is bear market behavior.
Here’s the study once again, but only looking at the cases in which silver is in a downtrend (i.e. is below is 200 dma).
Here are the 2013 and 2014 cases. Notice how they occurred in the broad context of a multi-year bear market.
Here are the 1992 and 1997 cases. Notice how they occurred in the broad context of a multi-decade bear market in which silver just swing sideways in a wide range.
The probability of gold and silver going up after this is a little higher than 50%. However, this study does support a previous study, which suggested that gold and silver are not about to begin new bull markets. They are stuck in bear markets. Gold and silver swing sideways in a wide range when they are in bear markets.