The S&P 500 has made a very “orderly” pullback recently. Over the past 5 days, each day’s HIGH has been below the prior day’s HIGH and each day’s LOW has been below the prior day’s LOW.
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Some Members have expressed concern about this selloff, which is rather rare following an all-time high.
So is this bearish for the stock market?
Here’s what happens next to the S&P 500 (historically) when:
- The S&P makes 5 consecutive days of lower highs and lower lows, before which…
- The S&P made a new all-time high (CLOSE $).
As you can see, this type of orderly selloff isn’t really bearish for the stock market in the short term, medium term, or long term. Bear markets don’t start this way. You can see that none of the signal dates occurred during the 1968, 1972, 2000, and 2007 bull market tops.
- Sometimes this marks the start of a “big correction”
- Sometimes this markets the start of a “small correction”
- Sometimes this is just a pullback
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