As you can see, when the stock market makes a new high for the first time in a long time, it usually keeps going up over the next year. This is logical.
When the stock market doesn’t make a new high in a long time, it’s akin to a rocket that’s gathering fuel for a long time. The longer the rocket gathers fuel, the more energy it’ll have when it does blast off. When the stock market finally makes a new all-time high (the rocket ignites), the stock market blasts off. The more fuel the rocket has, the higher it can go.
There is only 1 bearish case in this study: July 13, 2007.
That bearish case does not apply to today. The S&P made a new all-time high for the first time in 7 years because of the 2000-2002 bear market. The S&P 500’s current all-time high comes after a “small correction” that has lasted 142 trading days.