Earlier this week I said that September would probably be weak. So far this weakness has played out, with the S&P falling every day this past week.
There are only 3 other historical cases in which the S&P started September by falling 4 days in a row.
- September 1987
- September 1991
- September 2001
Here’s how the S&P played out over the next year
Here are the cases in detail.
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This is the 1987 “big correction”. As those in the Membership Program know, the conditions that led to the 1987 crash are very different from the stock market’s conditions today.
The stock market continued to rally.
This happened in the middle of the 2000-2002 bear market, AFTER the stock market had already crashed 30%+. The market environment back then was clearly different than the market environment today (we are near all-time highs).
This study seems super bearish. But with a sample size of 3, I wouldn’t pay too much attention to this (similar to how I wouldn’t pay too much attention to today’s bullish study, which has a sample size of 3).
However, please notice one thing.
- Most of my market studies from January – July were medium-long term bullish for the stock market.
- But over the past few weeks, I have noticed some bearish studies mixed in with the bullish studies.
This implies that we are getting ever closer to the end of this bull market. Be careful in 2019.
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