As demonstrated in today’s daily market outlook, the S&P 500 tends to experience seasonal weakness from May – September.
So far the S&P 500 has ignored this seasonal weakness by going up every single month from April – June. It looks like the S&P 500 will close higher in July as well.
Remember: if the stock market is strong when it “should” be weak, that’s a sign of bullish price action.
When the stock market goes up every month from April, May, to June, it has a very strong tendency to go up in the next 3-12 months.
When the stock market goes up every month from April, May, June, to July (extending the streak), the S&P 500’s forward returns are even more bullish.
The stock market has ignored “sell in May and go away” so far. When this happens, the stock market has a VERY STRONG tendency to go up in the next 3-12 months.
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