The stock market has flipped seasonality on its head this year. The stock market’s seasonality is usually bullish from January – April and then bearish from May-September.
Instead, the opposite has happened this year so far. The U.S. stock market experienced high volatility from January – March, while it trended upwards from April – present.
I first noted the stock market ignoring “sell in May and go away” in June.
Then again in July
And with just one week left of August, it looks like the S&P will close higher in August as well.
If the S&P does close higher this August, then it would have gone up every single month from April – August. This has only happened 4 other times since 1950.
This is a small study with a sample size of 4.
However, other market studies also exhibit extreme strength in the U.S. stock market right now. The conclusions are similar. When the stock market is as strong as it is right now…
- It might make a short term pullback (considering September is seasonally weak). But more importantly…
- The medium term and the long term are bullish. Focus on the medium-long term.
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