Here’s everything in the Bull Markets Membership Program.
- You must login to access them.
- Click here if you are interesting in joining or finding out more about the Membership Program.
- Click here to see what our trading models are saying about the markets right now, and how we’re trading.
#1 Trading & Investment Models
Medium-Long Term Model
Click here for the Medium-Long Term Model’s latest reading. Learn if it’s bullish or bearish right now, and how we’re trading this.
- Logic behind the Medium-Long Term Model
- Medium-Long Term Model: bull market component
- Medium-Long Term Model: stop losses
- Medium-Long Term Model: bear market component
- Medium-Long Term Model: “significant correction” component
- When to buy into a “significant correction”
- Backtest for this model
- Aggregate BUY/SELL dates and reasons
- Medium-Long Term Model: what happens if you use SSO instead of UPRO
Here’s a safer way to implement the Medium-Long Term Model (recommended)
*We’ve been underestimating the returns for all of our models. This means that if a model makes e.g. 20% a year, it actually earns 22% a year. Click here to see why
Short Term Trading Model
The Short Term Trading Model yields an average annual return of 22%. Here are the returns (log scale).
The Short Term Trading Model is most suitable for short term traders. It is not for medium term or long term traders.
Click here to access the Short Term Trading Model’s real-time trades. Trades are made at the end of the trading day.
Click here to understand the concept behind the Short Term Trading Model.
For immediate alerts on when this model is updated, please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org I will add you to the email list that I contact whenever a new trade has been placed. These alerts are only available to those in the Membership Program.
Here is the Short Term Trading Model’s performance on a log scale.
Macro Investing Model & Macro Trading Model
Bonus: Easiest trading model ever that beats 95% of traders
Bonus: Model for using the Conference Board’s LEI to beat buy and hold by 2x
Bonus: using the Macro Index to profit in a bear market
Bonus: simple model for medium term trading in a bear market
#2 Proprietary Indices
Click here for a quick snapshot of the latest update for our proprietary indices
This is our index that looks at the state of leading indicators in the U.S. economy. It is used in the Macro Investing Model and the Macro Trading Model
Medium Term Volatility Index
Our Medium Term Volatility Index can be used to predict when the stock market’s volatility will spike.
- When the Medium Term Volatility Index is very low, it predicts that volatility will rise.
- When the Medium Term Volatility Index is very high, it predicts that volatility will fall.
Volatility spikes (e.g. VIX spikes) coincide with short term declines in the stock market that sometimes see the S&P 500 fall 6-10%. Hence, this index is useful for predicting short term declines in the stock market.
Click here to see the Medium Term Volatility Index’s latest reading.
Here’s a non-updated image of what the Medium Term Volatility Index looks like. We update the Medium Term Volatility Index on a daily basis in the Membership Program.
Long term indices
- Recession Probability Index This index predicts the probability that a U.S. recession will begin within the next few months
- Long Term Risk Index This index predicts how close the U.S. stock market is to a major bull market top. Different from the Medium-Long Term Model. Here is how to use the Long Term Risk Index for position size determination.
- Goldman Sachs Bull/Bear Indicator This index predicts how close the U.S. stock market is to a major bull market top. Similar to our Long Term Risk Index
- Long Term Volatility Index This index predicts long term bottoms and tops in the stock market’s volatility. Can be used to trade $VIX
- Bull Markets Real Estate Index This index predicts when U.S. real estate prices will rise (long term) and when U.S. real estate prices will fall (long term). It helps investors know when to get in and out of real estate.
Medium term indices
- Liquidity Problem Index This index is a part of the Medium-Long Term Model
- Mean Reversion Index This index is a part of the Medium-Long Term Model
- Stock Bond Ratio Index This index calculates a Stock:Bond Ratio to understand when you should buy buys and when you should buy stocks
#3 Member-only research
Technical Indicators Backtest
Have you ever wondered which technical indicators actually work, and which are no better than a 50-50 coin toss?
We’ve run the numbers, and show you the answer in this technical indicators report. We show you exactly how much profit each technical indicator yields when you trade the S&P 500.
Click here to access the Technical Indicators Backtest
- Click here to see our member-only market studies.
- Update: how to use the Macro Index for trading and investing
- Macro Investing Model (based on the Macro Index)
- Macro Index: a work in progress
- Building a Fair Value model for the U.S. stock market – Part 3
- Building a Fair Value model for the U.S. stock market – Part 2
- Building a Fair Value model for the U.S. stock market – Part 1
- How gold performs during economic recessions & equities bear markets
- Should you buy government bonds during a bear market / recession?
- The S&P 500’s gains during the daynight vs. overnight
- Quantitative Model for Investing in Real Estate (that beats buy and hold by 2x)
- Improving the Golden/Death Cross Model with Initial Claims filter
- Momentum+Contrarian Model that generates 13.9% per year
- How to predict and trade the bond market
- How to be safe at the top of a bull market
- Testing a new yield curve model for the U.S. stock market
- How well do trend following models work in gold
- How well do trend following models work in currencies
- On the issue of 3x vs 2x leveraged ETFs
#4 Mindset training
Why is having a proper mindset important when it comes to trading and investing?
Because you could have the best trading/investment system, and you wouldn’t be able to follow it or improve it over time if you don’t have a proper mindset.
In this part of the Membership Program we teach you the proper mindset you need in order to become a successful investor and trader.