Here are my discretionary thoughts on forex and commodities. I only trade the S&P 500.
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- The U.S. dollar index will be capped at 91.
- Any continued pullback in gold and silver will be limited.
- Oil might pullback a little more to its 38.2% retracement
3:30 pm. The USD Index will be capped at 91.
There is an inverse correlation between the U.S. dollar and U.S. stock market. The USD Index is bouncing on the S&P’s correction.
I think the USD Index will at most bounce to 91. This turns prior support from the past few years into resistance. Then the USD’s bear market will resume.
6 am: any continued pullback in gold and silver will be limited
Gold and silver might pull back a little more. But their downside is limited.
Gold’s major trendline support is at $1250-$1260
Silver’s major trendline support is at $15.8-$15.9
In addition, the gold:silver ratio is very high right now. This means that the gold:silver ratio will soon reverse down, which is bullish for gold and silver in the medium term.
*The gold:silver ratio usually rises when gold & silver prices fall. The ratio usually falls when gold & silver prices rise.
6 am: Oil might pullback a little more to its 38.2% retracement
Oil has already retraced 23.6% of its entire rally. The stock market has already made a correction and gold/silver have already made a pullback. Pullbacks typically retrace 38.2%, which means that oil will probably fall to $57-$58 before bottoming.
Read Forex & commodities on February 8, 2018.
I only trade stocks. These are just my thoughts/outlook on other markets.
- Gold and silver will break above their tight range in the first half of 2018.
- The USD Index will crater below its final support (90-91) in the first half of 2018.
- The best traders I know are still bullish on Bitcoin in the short and long term. I don’t know when the crypto bubble will end.