Here are my discretionary thoughts on forex and commodities. I only trade the S&P 500.
Go to the homepage for my latest thoughts on forex and commodities.
- Gold and silver have pulled back enough.
- The U.S. dollar will rally a little more and commodities will pullback a little more if the S&P retests its crash-lows.
3 pm: gold and silver have pulled back enough
Silver has retraced more than 61.8% while gold has retraced more than 38.2%.
Here’s silver on a daily bar chart.
Here’s gold on a daily bar chart.
Gold and silver might face some short term weakness. Support for silver at $15.8. But the medium term risk:reward is bullish.
6 am: The U.S. dollar will rally a little more and commodities will pullback a little more if the S&P retests its crash-lows.
Our study demonstrates there’s a >50% chance that the S&P makes a marginal new low or retests its crash-lows over the next few days/weeks.
There’s a positive correlation between oil, gold, silver and the U.S. stock market right now. There’s also an inverse correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index and stocks right now. Hence, a retest of the S&P’ lows or marginal new low will = a bigger pullback in commodities and a bigger bounce in the U.S. Dollar.
From a medium term perspective, risk:reward favors bullish commodity investors and bearish USD traders. The stock market’s medium term bottom is either already in or is very close.
Read Forex & commodities on February 6, 2018.
I only trade stocks. These are just my thoughts/outlook on other markets.
- Gold and silver will break above their tight range in the first half of 2018.
- The USD Index will crater below its final support (90-91) in the first half of 2018.
- The best traders I know are still bullish on Bitcoin in the short and long term. I don’t know when the crypto bubble will end.