# February 16, 2018: Medium-Long Term Model update

The Medium-Long Term Model‘s value is 64 as of February 16, 2018. This is up +3 from last Friday. The model is updated daily. We post the model’s value here once every week.

A value of 64 means that the S&P 500 has completed almost 2/3 of its current “big rally” cycle. This “big rally” began in February 2016. The next significant correction or bear market is still somewhat far away.

When u pull out, will u short a small % of your portfolio

No. The model won’t catch the exact top, so shorting is dangerous.

Troy, thanks for the update and your daily articles.

Also, when you mention the market has 1-2 years left, how do you arrive at that number?

The model has “targets” that each bull market must hit. At the current rate that the data is going, it’ll take 1-2 years for all of those targets to get hit (closer to 2 years than 1 year).

Hi Troy,

At what number do you usually pull out?

When it hits 100. Because when it hits 100, the stock market sometimes goes up a little more before topping. That was the hedge fund’s strategy. I might pull out this time when it hits 95.