I’m Troy, the author behind BullMarkets.co (formerly BearMarket.net). I used to run a hedge fund, but closed it due to a major health scare (read here). I am now enjoying life and simply investing/trading my own account. I focus on long term performance and ignore short term performance.
I focus on medium-long term investments in U.S. equities. All of my investments and trades are determined via quantitative models.
My model states that the current bull market in stocks still has at least 1-2 years left (most likely 2-3 years). As an investor and trader, I need to watch out for bear markets and significant corrections. I’m always looking for ideas that go against my market view. Don’t focus on ideas that confirm your market view.
I share my latest thoughts on investing, trading, and the stock market on the blog.
- I focus on the data and not baseless opinions.
- I share our hard-hitting research to help you save time.
- I ignore economic theory, which is useless. (I was an economics major.) Economic theory is based on the idea of “ceteris paribus” (all other things being equal). Ceteris paribus is not plausible in the real world.
The Medium-Long Term Model
I’m not afraid that someone will reverse engineer the Medium-Long Term model.
- The model’s tenets are simple. But the way you express those ideas with data is complicated.
- Even if you do manage to reverse engineer the model, kudos to you. 🙂 I don’t mind. The model is still going to work if other people use it.
- The model isn’t static. I’m sure that in 10 years, the model will be different from what it is today.
- Reverse engineering the model is difficult. The model is built on historical non-standard patterns (i.e. I don’t use breakout triangles, flags, wedges and all that jazz). E.g. I read every single Wall Street Journal from 1950 to present. That’s more than 16,000 newspapers, many of which were on reels.
Read my guide on how to build a trading/investment model.
Many investors, traders, and market participants have no idea what they’re doing when investing. They blindly believe in dogma such as “rising interest rates cause stocks to fall” without actually doing any historical studies: have rising rates actually caused stocks to fall in the past?
When investing in equities, it is imperative that you understand the history of the stock market and global economic trends. History rhymes, and only by reading an accurate account of the past can you see causation and correlation between fundamentals and the market. Only by doing so can you build accurate investment models.
BullMarkets.co/history is one of the best accounts of markets in the years past. I ignore the bullshit headlines such as “the S&P 500 fell today because of turmoil in the Middle East”. I focus on the true fundamental factors that have driven markets in the past.